The second night of Fox’s 12th season of American Idol showed a sign of improvement for the reality veteran.

Make no mistake, Thursday’s Idol was lower rated than the premiere — that’s standard, especially since the show shifted to a Wednesday-Thursday pattern a couple years back. But instead of dropping 19 percent year over year like the first episode, Night 2 was down only 2 percent — a mere tenth of a point — from 2012. And even that gap could get erased when the final national ratings come in later.

In other words: Whether you love or hate the addition of Mariah Carey, Keith Urban and Nicki Minaj, more viewers stuck with the show this season after checking out the first episode. During the last couple years, Idol ratings dropped at least 20 percent between the show’s first two nights; this time the decline was only 7 percent. In fact, looking at the chart below, this the first time Night 2 hasn’t dropped significantly year over year since Idol‘s ratings plunge began in 2008. The two-hour telecast delivered 16.2 million viewers and a 5.6 rating among adults 18-49. Maybe Fox’s reality chief Mike Darnell was onto something when he told us yesterday that the judging panel was generating helpful buzz.

A tougher test will come when CBS resumes airing original episodes of its powerful Thursday lineup (CBS ran repeats last night). The Big Bang Theory is pulling down larger numbers lately than last night’s Idol performance and seems likely to win the night outright in the coming weeks.

Also Thursday: ABC was once again hit across the board by Idol, all shows dropping 7-17 percent. The return of The CW’s Vampire Diaries had its best numbers in a couple months (followed by a repeat of The Carrie Diaries pilot which came precariously close to tying its low-rated premiere). In fact, Vampire Diaries beat NBC’s 30 Rock and 1600 Penn in the demo. NBC’s comedy block was down — except Parks & Recreation, which jumped up from its last telecast six weeks ago.

Check out Annie Barrett’s Idol recap here.

Idol Night 2 history: READ FULL STORY »

The only real question was: By how much?

Fox’s American Idol returned Wednesday night to its lowest-rated and least-watched regular-season premiere telecast ever (the first season aired during the summer and generally isn’t counted). Idol delivered 17.9 million viewers and a 6.0 adults 18-49 demo rating. That’s down 19 percent from last year’s opener, which was the previous lowest-ever record-holder.

The numbers also mean last night’s Idol premiere will not be the most-watched entertainment show this week — Tuesday’s NCIS had 22.9 million viewers. This is the first time another series was seen by more viewers than Idol during its regular season premiere week.

Fox was braced for worse. Last year Idol was down an unprecedented 24 percent after the network launched The X Factor in the fall. This fall had both X Factor and NBC’s powerful The Voice, so competition show burnout by the time Idol opened seemed likely. Idol still managed to rank as the top-rated singing show premiere this season.

Fox’s American Idol has been largely on a downward trend since 2008 due to the reality mega-hit getting older and facing a broadcast landscape that’s increasingly crowded with singing shows. High-profile new judges Mariah Carey, Nicki Minaj and Keith Urban have made for plenty of fun headlines, but media insiders know they’re sandbags on the levy. Last night I predicted (rather accurately as it turned out) that Idol would return down 18 percent in the adult demo. Oddly enough, the only new judge in American Idol or The X Factor history that ever seemingly outright prevented a premiere ratings decline wasn’t a high-priced diva, but a celebrity lacking any real music industry experience — Ellen DeGeneres in 2010.

Viewers had mixed reactions to the premiere. To some, having the feel-good show focus on Carey vs. Minaj sniping was a turn-off. “If what we can look forward to [this season] is the immature, catty, out of control, ridiculous diva banter/bashing we won’t be tuning in for long,” one reader wrote on my Idol premiere ratings prediction post last night. While EW’s Idol recapper Annie Barrett summarized, “By the second hour of NYC auditions, Nicki had completely taken over the panel — shouting out directions to the contestants and always speaking first. You know, it’s generally fine if someone feels the need to do that. Compared to the autopilot judging on The X Factor and even Idol last season, I am thrilled to have someone in the driver’s seat, and beyond ecstatic that all four judges appeared to be awake and even [gasp!] interested in what was happening. The question is whether millions of American Idol viewers will accept and enjoy that our season 12 chauffeur appears to be rainbow sherbet wig enthusiast.”

See my Idol ratings prediction post for more analysis. And see Barrett’s Idol premiere recap here.

Other shows: The CW’s Arrow actually managed to improve a tenth of a point from its last telecast despite a winter hiatus and Idol competition. Supernatural was up a tick too. ABC’s comedy block was down slightly across the board, though Nashville improved a tick. Criminal Minds was down 10 percent, while CSI was up a notch.

UPDATE: Fox reacts to ‘Idol’ premiere ratings, says feud will intensify

Last Night’s Chart: READ FULL STORY »

Will Mariah and Nicki rescue American Idol? Or are we in for another “Idol ratings dive!” headline?

Below is a chart of all the previous Idol premieres (including that funky doesn’t-really-count first season which aired during the summer of 2002). You can see why Fox shook up the panel this season. The show’s adults 18-49 premiere rating peaked in 2007 with a massive 15.8. The numbers ebbed down in ’08 and ’09. Then, in 2010, the premiere actually perked up a tick.

What caused the show to halt its decline that year? It’s impossible to know for sure, but the consensus from insiders is that media buzz surrounding the hiring of talk show host Ellen DeGeneres for the judges panel kept the ratings afloat — even though she barely appeared in the first episode (many casual Idol viewers were unaware that DeGeneres didn’t join the Idol team until after the early auditions). If that theory is correct, it’s interesting that the only judge shakeup in American Idol or The X Factor history that ever prevented a ratings decline wasn’t by hiring some high-priced diva, but a celebrity who lacked any real music industry experience.

Fox hoped Idol ratings would stabilize, but the show’s premiere had a 17 percent drop in 2011 and then an unprecedented 24 percent drop last year. What will tonight’s premiere bring?

If any new judge drives viewers to Idol this evening, it probably won’t be Carey or Minaj, despite all the headlines over their supposed feud. Granted, Minaj could help deliver eyeballs this season once we get a sample of her cutting criticism. But for the premiere, I suspect Keith Urban is best positioned to help the ratings. Country music award shows and the success of The Voice (which has country star Blake Shelton) suggest country appeal can potentially drive broadcast viewers.

One executive at a non-Fox network suspected Idol could be relatively stable tonight since last year’s big change of having X Factor run in Fox’s fall probably heavily contributed to its previous decline — so this year the Factor effect is already factored in (so to speak). Another guessed a drop around 10 percent.

So let’s make a prediction for the 12 season debut! Taking into account Idol ratings history … Fox’s weak fall performance … NBC’s The Voice being added to the fall … recent album sales of Carey, Urban and Minaj … my level of annoyance at Idol billboards in West L.A. …  the current market price of soybean futures … and the angle of the sun on my laptop keyboard at this moment … I’m going to somewhat pessimistically predict an 18 percent decline to a 6.1 rating. Thoughts?

Also, check out Annie Barrett’s 12 Wishes for Idol Season 12.

UPDATE: American Idol premiere ratings are in: Suck it, Nate Silver!

Idol Premiere History: READ FULL STORY »